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Stata 16 于2019年6月26日**发布,更新了大量的新功能,详细信息请登陆科学软件网查看。

Frequentist inference is based on the sampling distributions of estimators of parameters and provides
parameter point estimates and their standard errors as well as confidence intervals. The exact sampling
distributions are rarely known and are often approximated by a large-sample normal distribution.
Bayesian inference is based on the posterior distribution of the parameters and provides summaries of
this distribution including posterior means and their MCMC standard errors (MCSE) as well as credible
intervals. Although exact posterior distributions are known only in a number of cases, general posterior
distributions can be estimated via, for example, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling without
any large-sample approximation.
Frequentist confidence intervals do not have straightforward probabilistic interpretations as do
Bayesian credible intervals. For example, the interpretation of a 95% confidence interval is that if
we repeat the same experiment many times and compute confidence intervals for each experiment,
then 95% of those intervals will contain the true value of the parameter. For any given confidence
interval, the probability that the true value is in that interval is either zero or one, and we do not
know which. We may only infer that any given confidence interval provides a plausible range for the
true value of the parameter. A 95% Bayesian credible interval, on the other hand, provides a range
for a parameter such that the probability that the parameter lies in that range is 95%.

Nonlinear DSGE models in Stata 15
In Stata 15, we introduced the dsge command for fitting linear DSGE models, which are time-series models used in economics and finance. These models are an alternative to traditional forecasting models. Both attempt to explain aggregate economic phenomena, but DSGE models do this on the basis of models derived from microeconomic theory.
New in Stata 16, the dsgenl command fits nonlinear DSGE models. Most DSGE models are nonlinear, and this means that you no longer need to linearize them by hand. When you enter equations into dsgenl, it linearizes them for you.
After estimating the parameters of your model with dsgenl, you can obtain the transition and policy matrices; determine the model’s steady state; estimate variables’ variances, covariances, and autocovariances implied by the system of equations; and create and graph impulse–response functions.
This is likely to be the favorite feature of macroeconomists and anyone working in a central bank.
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