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主讲嘉宾
王存同,人口学博士、教授。博士毕业于北京大学(与University of Michigan合作培养),博士后研究员就职于美国伊利诺伊大学(University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)。现为财经大学社会发展学院教授,主要从事社会统计及计量经济分析、人口社会学、人口经济学等领域的研究与教学,其定量研究与教学在国内外学术界享有较高的盛誉。

Bayesian and frequentist approaches have very different philosophies about what is considered fixed
and, therefore, have very different interpretations of the results. The Bayesian approach assumes that
the observed data sample is fixed and that model parameters are random. The posterior distribution
of parameters is estimated based on the observed data and the prior distribution of parameters and is
used for inference. The frequentist approach assumes that the observed data are a repeatable random
sample and that parameters are unknown but fixed and constant across the repeated samples. The
inference is based on the sampling distribution of the data or of the data characteristics (statistics). In
other words, Bayesian analysis answers questions based on the distribution of parameters conditional
on the observed sample, whereas frequentist analysis answers questions based on the distribution of
statistics obtained from repeated hypothetical samples, which would be generated by the same process
that produced the observed sample given that parameters are unknown but fixed. Frequentist analysis
consequently requires that the process that generated the observed data is repeatable. This assumption
may not always be feasible. For example, in meta-analysis, where the observed sample represents the
collected studies of interest, one may argue that the collection of studies is a one-time experiment.

Finally, as we briefly mentioned earlier, the estimation precision in Bayesian analysis is not limited
by the sample size—Bayesian simulation methods may provide an arbitrary degree of precision.
Despite the conceptual and methodological advantages of the Bayesian approach, its application in
practice is still considered controversial sometimes. There are two main reasons for this—the presumed
subjectivity in specifying prior information and the computational challenges in implementing Bayesian
methods. Along with the objectivity that comes from the data, the Bayesian approach uses potentially
subjective prior distribution. That is, different individuals may specify different prior distributions.
Proponents of frequentist statistics argue that for this reason, Bayesian methods lack objectivity and
should be avoided. Indeed, there are settings such as clinical trial cases when the researchers want to
minimize a potential bias coming from preexisting beliefs and achieve more objective conclusions.
Even in such cases, however, a balanced and reliable Bayesian approach is possible. The trend in
using noninformative priors in Bayesian models is an attempt to address the issue of subjectivity. On
the other hand, some Bayesian proponents argue that the classical methods of statistical inference
have built-in subjectivity such as a choice for a sampling procedure, whereas the subjectivity is made
explicit in Bayesian analysis.

Stata 是一套提供其使用者数据分析、数据管理以及绘制图表的完整及整合性统计软件。它提供许许多多功能,包含线性混合模型、均衡重复反复及多项式普罗比模式。用Stata绘制的统计图形相当精美。
新版本的STATA采用具亲和力的窗口接口,使用者自行建立程序时,软件能提供具有直接命令式的语法。Stata提供完整的使用手册,包含统计样本建立、解释、模型与语法、文献等**过一万余页的出版品。
除此之外,Stata软件可以透过网络实时更新每天的新功能,更可以得知世界各地的使用者对于STATA公司提出的问题与解决之道。使用者也可以透过Stata Journal获得许许多多的相关讯息以及书籍介绍等。另外一个获取庞大资源的管道就是Statalist,它是一个立的listserver,每月交替提供使用者**过1000个讯息以及50个程序。
Stata的统计功能很强,除了传统的统计分析方法外,还收集了近20年发展起来的新方法,如Cox比例风险回归,指数与Weibull回归,多类结果与有序结果的logistic回归,Poisson回归,负二项回归及广义负二项回归,随机效应模型等。具体说, Stata具有如下统计分析能力:
数值变量资料的一般分析:参数估计,t检验,单因素和多因素的方差分析,协方差分析,交互效应模型,平衡和非平衡设计,嵌套设计,随机效应,多个均数的两两比较,缺项数据的处理,方差齐性检验,正态性检验,变量变换等。
分类资料的一般分析:参数估计,列联表分析 ( 列联系数,确切概率 ) ,流行病学表格分析等。
等级资料的一般分析:秩变换,秩和检验,秩相关等
相关与回归分析:简单相关,偏相关,典型相关,以及多达数十种的回归分析方法,如多元线性回归,逐步回归,加权回归,稳键回归,二阶段回归,百分位数 ( 中位数 ) 回归,残差分析、强影响点分析,曲线拟合,随机效应的线性回归模型等。
其他方法:质量控制,整群抽样的设计效率,诊断试验评价,kappa等。
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